Identify Survival Predictors of the First Kidney Transplantation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: The first kidney transplant survival is very important. We know that short-term survival of kidney
transplantation is improved over the past two decades in Iran; however, no information is available on long-term survival and predictors. This study explored factors influencing long-term renal transplant survival at northwest of Iran.

Methods: In this single-center, study, survival rates and half-life of 201 the first kidney transplants between 1999 and 2008 were measured by a historical-cohort study in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Urmia, Iran. The log-rank test and Cox-regression model were used to compare survival curves and determine factor affecting graft survival time, respectively.

Results: First graft survival from one, five, and 10 years was 96%, 89%, and 46%, respectively. Mean±se and median±se of first graft survival time was 3061±105.01 day (95% CI: 2855.47-3267.11 day) and 3411±282.1 day (95%CI: 2858.08-3963.92), respectively. Predictors of first graft rejection were recipient age (P=0.001), LDL cholesterol (P=0.008), immunosuppressive drugs (P=0.047), serum creatinine three and six months (P=0.042 and 0.001, respectively) and related donor family (P=0.037).

Conclusion: Patients with first graft transplantation had a moderate long-term survival. The study showed that small age at transplant, low LDL cholesterol before transplant, and relative to donor, could be decrease the risk graft loss.