Macro Socioeconomic Determinants of Suicide in Iran: A Time Series Study during 1991-2023
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Abstract
Background: Although suicide is ultimately committed by individuals, it is influenced by a wide range of factors, from micro to macro levels.
Methods: This time-series research examines the relationship between macro socioeconomic variables and the suicide rate from 1991 to 2023. The data were collected from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), and the World Bank (WB). Time series charts were used to describe the data, and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed for examining the relationship among variables using the Microfit 5 software.
Results: The results indicate a significant negative relationship between inflation, urban population, and women's participation in the labor force with suicide, but a significant positive relationship between mobile phone penetration and labor force participation with suicide rate. Furthermore, literacy and GDP per capita were not associated with the suicide rate.
Conclusion: Macro socioeconomic indicators impact on suicide rates. By better understanding the mechanism of this impact and appropriate planning, suicide rates can be reduced.
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2. WHO (2023). Suicide. Available from: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/suicide
3. Wang J, Sumner S. A, Simon TR, et al (2020). Trends in the incidence and le-thality of suicidal acts in the United States, 2006 to 2015. JAMA Psychiatry, 77(7): 684–693.
4. Payne S, Swami V, Stanistreet D.L (2008). The social construction of gender and its influence on suicide: A review of the literature. J Mens Health, 5 (1): 23–35.
5. Franzese R. J (2015). The sociology of deviance: Differences, tradition and stigma. Illinois: Charles C Thomas Publisher.
6. Galynker I (2022). The suicidal crisis: Clinical guide to the assessment of imminent suicide risk. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. Wyder M, Ward P, De Leo D (2009). Sepa-ration as a suicide risk factor. J Affect Disord, 116(3): 208–213.
8. McCarthy J. F, Blow F.C, , Ignacio R.V, et al (2012). Suicide among patients in the veteran’s affairs health system: Rural–urban differences in rates, risks, and methods. Am J Public Health, 102 (S1): S111–S117.
9. O’Connor RC, Pirkis J (2016). The interna-tional handbook of suicide prevention. West Sussex: Wiley Blackwell.
10. Standish K (2020). Suicide through a peace building lens. Singapore. Palgrave Macmil-lan.
11. Ebrahimi B, Doosti-Irani A, Rezapur-Shahkolai F, Poorolajal J (2022). High-risk behaviors and associated factors among Iranian adult population: A na-tional survey. Iran J Public Health, 51(5): 1107-1117.
12. Jahangiri K, Yousefi K, Mozafari A, et al (2020). The prevalence of suicidal idea-tion after the earthquake: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Iran J Public Health, 49(12): 2330-2338.
13. Poorolajal J, Ghaleiha A, Darvishi N, et al (2017). The Prevalence of Psychiatric Distress and Associated Risk Factors among College Students Using GHQ-28 Questionnaire. Iran J Public Health, 46(7): 957-963.
14. Alami A, Nejatian M, Lael-Monfared E, et al (2019). Epidemiology of sui-cide/suicide attempt and its association with individual, family, and social fac-tors in eastern part of Iran: A historical cohort study. Iran J Public Health, 48(8): 1469-1477.
15. Amini P, Ahmadinia H, Poorolajal J, et al (2016). Evaluating the high-risk groups for suicide: A comparison of logistic re-gression, support vector machine, deci-sion tree and artificial neural network. Iran J Public Health, 45(9): 1179-1187.
16. Veisani Y, Delpishe A, Valizadeh R, et al (2019). Income inequality by Gini-coefficient on suicide death in Iran: A review of national data. Iran J Public Health, 48(8): 1512-1517.
17. Lepori GM, Morgan S, Assarian B, et al (2024). Economic activity and suicides: Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales. Soc Sci Med, 342:116538.
18. Gunnel D, Chang SS (2016). Economic reces-sion, unemployment, and suicide. In: O’Connor, RC, Pirkis J (Eds), The Inter-national Handbook of Suicide Preven-tion, Oxford: John Wiley & Sons. Pp: 284-300.
19. Yin H, Xu L, Shao Y, et al (2016). Relation-ship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People’s Republic of China: 2004-2013. Neuropsy-chiatr Dis Treat, 12: 3119-3128.
20. Zhang J, Ma J, Jia C, et al (2010). Economic growth and suicide rate changes: A case in China from 1982-2005. Eur Psychiatry, 25(3): 159-163.
21. Inglehart R (1997). Modernization and post modernization: Cultural, economic, and political changes in 43 countries. Princeton: Prince-ton University Press.
22. Moniruzzaman S, Anderson R (2004). Rela-tionship between economic develop-ment and suicide mortality: A global cross-sectional analysis in an epidemio-logical transition perspective. Public Health, 118(5): 346-348.
23. Yang B (1992). The economy and suicide: A time-series study of the U.S.A. Am J Econ Sociol, 51 (1): 87-99.
24. Milner A, Hjelmeland H, Arensman E, et al (2013). Social-environmental factors and suicide mortality: A narrative review of over 200 articles. Sociology Mind, 3(2): 137–148.
25. Stack S (1981). Divorce and suicide: A time series analysis, 1933–1970. J Fam Issues, 2(1): 77–90.
26. Platt S (1984). Unemployment and suicidal behavior: A review of the literature. Soc Sci Med, 19(2): 93–115.
27. Stack S (1984). The effect of unemployment duration on national suicide rates: A time series analysis 1948-1982. Sociol Fo-cus, 17 (1): 17-29.
28. Stuckler D, Basu S, Suhrcke M, et al (2009). The public health effect of economic crises and alternative policy responses in Europe: An empirical analysis. Lancet, 374(9686): 315–23.
29. Chang SS, Gunnell D, Sterne JAC, et al (2009). Was the economic crisis 1997–1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time‐trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Soc Sci Med, 68(7): 1322–31.
30. Henry AF, Short JF (1954). Suicide and homi-cide. New York: Free Press.
31. Nordt C, Warnke I, Seifritz E, et al (2015). Modeling suicide and employment: A longitudinal analysis covering 63 coun-tries, 2000-2011. Lancet Psychiatry, 2(3): 239-45.
32. Mäkinen I (1997). Are there social corre-lates to suicide? Soc Sci Medicine, 44(12): 1919–29.
33. Pesaran MH, Shin, Y (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegra-tion Analysis. In: Strom S, Holly A, Dia-mond P. (Eds.), Centennial Volume of Rangar Frisch. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
34. Deyhoul M, Ahmadi S, Mirfardi A (2019). Development and crime in Iran. Quarter-ly of Social Studies and Research in Iran, 8(3): 581-608.
35. Emamgholipour S, Arab M, Shirani R. (2021). Socioeconomic determinants of suicide in Iran: Panel data study. Iran J Public Health, 50(11): 2309-2316.
36. Chen YY, Chen M, Lui CSM, et al (2017). Female labor force participation and su-icide rates in the world. Soc Sci Med, 10(195): 61-67.
37. Burr JA, McCall PL, Powell-Griner E (1997). Female labor force participation and su-icide. Soc Sci Med, 44(12):1847-59.
38. World Bank (2022). Islamic Republic of Iran: Overview. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview
39. Akyuz M, Karul C (2023). The effect of economic factors on suicide: An analy-sis of a developing country. Int J Hum Rights Healthc, 16(5): 473-482.
40. Solano P, Pizzorno E, Gallina AM, et al (2012). Employment status, inflation and suicidal behavior: an analysis of a strati-fied sample in Italy. Int J Soc Psychiatry, 58(5): 477-84.
41. Reinecke L, Aufenanger S, Beutel ME, et al (2016). Digital stress over the life span: the effects of communication load and internet multitasking on perceived stress and psychological health impairments in a German probability sample. J Media Psychol, 20(1): 1-26.
42. Ahmadi, S (2022). A sociological analysis of the effect of economic indicators on homicide in Iran during 1995-2018. Jour-nal of Applied Sociology, 33(3): 83-100.
43. Shinetsetseg O, Jung YH, Park YS, et al (2022). Association between Smartphone Addiction and Suicide. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 19(18): 11600.
44. Greiner BA, Arensman E (2022). The role of work in suicidal behavior – uncover-ing priorities for research and preven-tion. Scand J Work Environ Health, 48(6): 419-424.
45. Skinner A, Osgood ND, Occhipinti JA, et al (2023). Unemployment and under-employment are causes of suicide. Sci Adv, 9(28):eadg3758.
2. WHO (2023). Suicide. Available from: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/suicide
3. Wang J, Sumner S. A, Simon TR, et al (2020). Trends in the incidence and le-thality of suicidal acts in the United States, 2006 to 2015. JAMA Psychiatry, 77(7): 684–693.
4. Payne S, Swami V, Stanistreet D.L (2008). The social construction of gender and its influence on suicide: A review of the literature. J Mens Health, 5 (1): 23–35.
5. Franzese R. J (2015). The sociology of deviance: Differences, tradition and stigma. Illinois: Charles C Thomas Publisher.
6. Galynker I (2022). The suicidal crisis: Clinical guide to the assessment of imminent suicide risk. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. Wyder M, Ward P, De Leo D (2009). Sepa-ration as a suicide risk factor. J Affect Disord, 116(3): 208–213.
8. McCarthy J. F, Blow F.C, , Ignacio R.V, et al (2012). Suicide among patients in the veteran’s affairs health system: Rural–urban differences in rates, risks, and methods. Am J Public Health, 102 (S1): S111–S117.
9. O’Connor RC, Pirkis J (2016). The interna-tional handbook of suicide prevention. West Sussex: Wiley Blackwell.
10. Standish K (2020). Suicide through a peace building lens. Singapore. Palgrave Macmil-lan.
11. Ebrahimi B, Doosti-Irani A, Rezapur-Shahkolai F, Poorolajal J (2022). High-risk behaviors and associated factors among Iranian adult population: A na-tional survey. Iran J Public Health, 51(5): 1107-1117.
12. Jahangiri K, Yousefi K, Mozafari A, et al (2020). The prevalence of suicidal idea-tion after the earthquake: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Iran J Public Health, 49(12): 2330-2338.
13. Poorolajal J, Ghaleiha A, Darvishi N, et al (2017). The Prevalence of Psychiatric Distress and Associated Risk Factors among College Students Using GHQ-28 Questionnaire. Iran J Public Health, 46(7): 957-963.
14. Alami A, Nejatian M, Lael-Monfared E, et al (2019). Epidemiology of sui-cide/suicide attempt and its association with individual, family, and social fac-tors in eastern part of Iran: A historical cohort study. Iran J Public Health, 48(8): 1469-1477.
15. Amini P, Ahmadinia H, Poorolajal J, et al (2016). Evaluating the high-risk groups for suicide: A comparison of logistic re-gression, support vector machine, deci-sion tree and artificial neural network. Iran J Public Health, 45(9): 1179-1187.
16. Veisani Y, Delpishe A, Valizadeh R, et al (2019). Income inequality by Gini-coefficient on suicide death in Iran: A review of national data. Iran J Public Health, 48(8): 1512-1517.
17. Lepori GM, Morgan S, Assarian B, et al (2024). Economic activity and suicides: Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales. Soc Sci Med, 342:116538.
18. Gunnel D, Chang SS (2016). Economic reces-sion, unemployment, and suicide. In: O’Connor, RC, Pirkis J (Eds), The Inter-national Handbook of Suicide Preven-tion, Oxford: John Wiley & Sons. Pp: 284-300.
19. Yin H, Xu L, Shao Y, et al (2016). Relation-ship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People’s Republic of China: 2004-2013. Neuropsy-chiatr Dis Treat, 12: 3119-3128.
20. Zhang J, Ma J, Jia C, et al (2010). Economic growth and suicide rate changes: A case in China from 1982-2005. Eur Psychiatry, 25(3): 159-163.
21. Inglehart R (1997). Modernization and post modernization: Cultural, economic, and political changes in 43 countries. Princeton: Prince-ton University Press.
22. Moniruzzaman S, Anderson R (2004). Rela-tionship between economic develop-ment and suicide mortality: A global cross-sectional analysis in an epidemio-logical transition perspective. Public Health, 118(5): 346-348.
23. Yang B (1992). The economy and suicide: A time-series study of the U.S.A. Am J Econ Sociol, 51 (1): 87-99.
24. Milner A, Hjelmeland H, Arensman E, et al (2013). Social-environmental factors and suicide mortality: A narrative review of over 200 articles. Sociology Mind, 3(2): 137–148.
25. Stack S (1981). Divorce and suicide: A time series analysis, 1933–1970. J Fam Issues, 2(1): 77–90.
26. Platt S (1984). Unemployment and suicidal behavior: A review of the literature. Soc Sci Med, 19(2): 93–115.
27. Stack S (1984). The effect of unemployment duration on national suicide rates: A time series analysis 1948-1982. Sociol Fo-cus, 17 (1): 17-29.
28. Stuckler D, Basu S, Suhrcke M, et al (2009). The public health effect of economic crises and alternative policy responses in Europe: An empirical analysis. Lancet, 374(9686): 315–23.
29. Chang SS, Gunnell D, Sterne JAC, et al (2009). Was the economic crisis 1997–1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time‐trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Soc Sci Med, 68(7): 1322–31.
30. Henry AF, Short JF (1954). Suicide and homi-cide. New York: Free Press.
31. Nordt C, Warnke I, Seifritz E, et al (2015). Modeling suicide and employment: A longitudinal analysis covering 63 coun-tries, 2000-2011. Lancet Psychiatry, 2(3): 239-45.
32. Mäkinen I (1997). Are there social corre-lates to suicide? Soc Sci Medicine, 44(12): 1919–29.
33. Pesaran MH, Shin, Y (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegra-tion Analysis. In: Strom S, Holly A, Dia-mond P. (Eds.), Centennial Volume of Rangar Frisch. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
34. Deyhoul M, Ahmadi S, Mirfardi A (2019). Development and crime in Iran. Quarter-ly of Social Studies and Research in Iran, 8(3): 581-608.
35. Emamgholipour S, Arab M, Shirani R. (2021). Socioeconomic determinants of suicide in Iran: Panel data study. Iran J Public Health, 50(11): 2309-2316.
36. Chen YY, Chen M, Lui CSM, et al (2017). Female labor force participation and su-icide rates in the world. Soc Sci Med, 10(195): 61-67.
37. Burr JA, McCall PL, Powell-Griner E (1997). Female labor force participation and su-icide. Soc Sci Med, 44(12):1847-59.
38. World Bank (2022). Islamic Republic of Iran: Overview. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview
39. Akyuz M, Karul C (2023). The effect of economic factors on suicide: An analy-sis of a developing country. Int J Hum Rights Healthc, 16(5): 473-482.
40. Solano P, Pizzorno E, Gallina AM, et al (2012). Employment status, inflation and suicidal behavior: an analysis of a strati-fied sample in Italy. Int J Soc Psychiatry, 58(5): 477-84.
41. Reinecke L, Aufenanger S, Beutel ME, et al (2016). Digital stress over the life span: the effects of communication load and internet multitasking on perceived stress and psychological health impairments in a German probability sample. J Media Psychol, 20(1): 1-26.
42. Ahmadi, S (2022). A sociological analysis of the effect of economic indicators on homicide in Iran during 1995-2018. Jour-nal of Applied Sociology, 33(3): 83-100.
43. Shinetsetseg O, Jung YH, Park YS, et al (2022). Association between Smartphone Addiction and Suicide. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 19(18): 11600.
44. Greiner BA, Arensman E (2022). The role of work in suicidal behavior – uncover-ing priorities for research and preven-tion. Scand J Work Environ Health, 48(6): 419-424.
45. Skinner A, Osgood ND, Occhipinti JA, et al (2023). Unemployment and under-employment are causes of suicide. Sci Adv, 9(28):eadg3758.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 54 No 8 (2025) | |
| Section | Original Article(s) | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v54i8.19587 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Suicide Socioeconomic determinants Time series Iran | ||
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How to Cite
1.
Mokhtari M, Ahmadi S. Macro Socioeconomic Determinants of Suicide in Iran: A Time Series Study during 1991-2023. Iran J Public Health. 2025;54(8):1786-1795.
