The Trend of Death Rate and Causes of Death Based on the ICD-10 among Young People in Iran within the Last Three Decades

Abstract

Background: Youth is undeniably the most important resource of any country. This study aimed to determine the trend of mortality rate and the cause of death, based on the ICD-10, among young people in Iran and examines significance of the changes in any cause during the last three decades.

Methods: The present study is a secondary analysis of data, which examines the trend of death rate and its causes among young adult, aged 15-24 yr, longitudinally during 1990-2019. The data source was the GBD website. Linear Regression analysis was used to measure the slope of changes in mortality rates and causes of death during the period, where "time" was the independent variable and "mortality rate" and "causes of mortality" were dependent variables.

Results: The death rate of young people declined by 56% during the period, equal to an average of 2.17 units per year. The most common cause of death has been injuries (69%), then NCDs (25%), and finally communicable diseases (6%). However, death due to injuries (except SUD), communicable diseases (except HIV), and NCDs (except musculoskeletal disorders) declined significantly by 1.43, 0.3, and 0.09 units per year, over 30 yr respectively.

Conclusion: Examining past trends in death rates and causes strengthens insights into the state and future trends in health and death-related indicators, which are crucial for policy-making, especially in developing countries with limited resources.