The Application of Non-Parametric Count Models for the Modeling of Female’s Accident Rates in Hamadan Province from 2009 to 2016
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Abstract
Background: Accidents were just one of the general health problems. According to WHO forecasts (2013), deaths from road accidents will become the fifth-highest cause of death in the world by 2030. Therefore, we have attempted the application of non-parametric count models for modeling female’s accident rates.
Methods: All accidents in Hamadan Province, western Iran are referred to as one of the emergency centers located in the hospitals. Data regarding the accidents were obtained from 21 emergency centers across Hamadan for the period 2009-2016. To assess the trend and pattern of the accidents, the Generalized Additive Model for the accident rate has been utilized.
Results: The Mean±SD age of the females in study was 31.23±12.88 yr old. For each of the three kinds of road accidents (car accidents, motor accidents and pedestrian crashes), the accident rates in the “residential urban” areas are lesser than in the “non-residential” area (P=<0.001) and in "public and sports grounds" and "great roads, avenues and streets" are more than in "others". For the three kinds of accidents, the functional effect in the monthly trend of the accidents was signification (P=<0.001).
Conclusion: The rates for all three kinds of accidents decreased. The increase in accident rates from the beginning of 2014 to Mar 2016 maybe due to the generalization of insurances in Iran and the increase in the number of accident victims being referred to the hospitals, which was the same with the results of other studies.
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31. Khorshidi A, Ainy E, Soori H (2016). Epidemiological Pattern of Road Traffic Injuries among Iranian Motorcyclist in 2012. Journal of Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention, 4(1):47-54.
32. Hasanzadeh J, Moradinazar M, Najafi F, Ahmadi-Jouybary T (2014). Trends of mortality of road traffic accidents in Fars Province, Southern Iran, 2004-2010. Iran J Public Health, 43(9):1259-1265.
2. Hirose FH, Ferraz ACP, Romão MNPV, Simões AdSA (2016). Analysis of road accident rates following performed actions associated to engineering, education and enforcement: Araraquara, Franca, Matão, Ribeirão Preto and São Carlos. 17th International Conference Road Safety On Five Continents (RS5C 2016), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 17-19 May 2016.
3. Airosa F, Arman M, Sundberg T, Öhlén G, Falkenberg T (2016). Caring touch as a bodily anchor for patients after sustaining a motor vehicle accident with minor or no physical injuries-a mixed methods study. BMC Complement Altern Med, 16(1):106.
4. Esmael MO, Sasaki K, Nishii K (2013). Road traffic accident trend in developing countries-the policy implications. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies.10:1978-90.
5. Bucher GL (2015). Women motorcycle passengers: the view from the backseat. Indiana University of Pennsylvania,5-8.
6. Kmet L, Macarthur C (2006). Urban–rural differences in motor vehicle crash fatality and hospitalization rates among children and youth. Accid Anal Prev, 38(1):122-7.
7. Olszewski P, Szagała P, Wolański M, Zielińska A (2015). Pedestrian fatality risk in accidents at unsignalized zebra crosswalks in Poland. Accid Anal Prev, 84:83-91.
8. Chen PL, Jou RC, Saleh W, Pai CW (2016). Accidents involving pedestrians with their backs to traffic or facing traffic: an evaluation of crash characteristics and injuries. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 50(5):736-51.
9. Herrero-Fernández D, Macía-Guerrero P, Silvano-Chaparro L, Merino L, Jenchura EC (2016). Risky behavior in young adult pedestrians: personality determinants, correlates with risk perception, and gender differences. Transportation research part F: traffic psychology and behaviour.36:14-24.
10. Sori H (2007). Epidemiology Approach in Traffic Injuries Prevention. sixth Iranian Epidemiological Congress proceeding.
11. Chin HC, Quddus MA (2003). Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections. Accid Anal Prev, 35(2):253-9.
12. Shirazi M, Lord D, Dhavala SS, Geedipally SR (2016). A semiparametric negative binomial generalized linear model for modeling over-dispersed count data with a heavy tail: Characteristics and applications to crash data. Accid Anal Prev, 91:10-8.
13. Mahmoodi M, Moghimbeigi A, Faradmal J, Ghahramani M (2016). Detecting Rates, Trends and Determinants of Cesarean Section Deliveries in Iran Using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. Epidemiol Biostat Public Health,13(3):1-7.
14. Mahmoodi M, Moghimbeigi A, Mohammad K, Faradmal J (2016). Semiparametric models for multilevel overdispersed count data with extra zeros. Stat Methods Med Res, 27(4):1187-201.
15. Moghimbeigi A, Eshraghian MR, Mohammad K, McArdle B (2009). A score test for zero-inflation in multilevel count data. Comput Stat Data Anal, 53(4):1239-48.
16. Chen F, Yip PSF (2015). The influence of cold weather on the usage of emergency link calls: a case study in Hong Kong. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak, 13;15:66.
17. Population and Housing Census of Iran (2016). General result of Population and Housing Censuses of Iran. Statistical Center of Iran Publications. Available from: https://www.amar.org.ir/english/Population-and-Housing-Censuses/Census-2016-General-Results
18. Hedeker D, Gibbons RD (2006). Longitudinal data analysis. 1st ed. John Wiley & Sons.
19. Guisan A, Edwards TC, Hastie T (2002). Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene. Ecological modelling,157(2):89-100.
20. Zarei E, Dormohammadi A (2015). Accidents analysis in a Disaster and Emergency Medical Management Center. J Saf Promot Inj Prev, 3(3):191-98.
21. WHO (2013). Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013: Supporting a Decade of Action. Geneva: WHO.
22. Hamzeh B, Najafi F, Karamimatin B, Ahmadijouybari T, Salari A, Moradinazar M (2016). Epidemiology of traffic crash mortality in west of Iran in a 9 year period. Chin J Traumatol, 19(2):70-4.
23. Ghaem H, Hajipour M, Tabatabaee HR, Yadollahi M, Izanloo F (2017). Time Series Analysis of Mortalities Resulting from Car Accidents in the Injured Individuals Hospitalized in Shiraz Shahid Rajaee Hospital During 2010-2016. Trauma Monthly, 23(1):el3573.
24. Afshar H (2005). Women and politics in the third world. 3rd ed. Routledge: pp.: 1979-95.
25. Sedghi H (2007). Women and politics in Iran: Veiling, unveiling, and reveiling. Cambridge University Press, pp. 229–32.
26. Hwang HC, Stallones L, Keefe TJ (1997). Childhood injury deaths: rural and urban differences, Colorado 1980-8. Injury Prevention, 3(1):35-7.
27. Niemcryk SJ, Kaufmann CR, Brawley M, Yount SI (1997). Motor vehicle crashes, restraint use, and severity of injury in children in Nevada. Am J Prev Med, 13(2):109-14.
28. Chipman ML, MacGregor CG, Smiley AM, Lee-Gosselin M (1993). The role of exposure in comparisons of crash risk among different drivers and driving environments. Accid Anal Prev, 25(2):207-11.
29. Clark DE, Cushing BM (2004). Rural and urban traffic fatalities, vehicle miles, and population density. Accid Anal Prev, 36(6):967-72.
30. Mohtasham-Amiri Z, Dastgiri S, Davoudi-Kiakalyeh A, Imani A, Mollarahimi K (2016). An epidemiological study of road traffic accidents in Guilan Province, Northern Iran in 2012. Bull Emerg Trauma, 4(4):230-235.
31. Khorshidi A, Ainy E, Soori H (2016). Epidemiological Pattern of Road Traffic Injuries among Iranian Motorcyclist in 2012. Journal of Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention, 4(1):47-54.
32. Hasanzadeh J, Moradinazar M, Najafi F, Ahmadi-Jouybary T (2014). Trends of mortality of road traffic accidents in Fars Province, Southern Iran, 2004-2010. Iran J Public Health, 43(9):1259-1265.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 49 No 4 (2020) | |
| Section | Original Article(s) | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v49i4.3184 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Poisson Negative binomial; Semiparametric mixed model; Accident Iran | ||
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How to Cite
1.
EGHBALIAN M, MOGHIMBEIGI A, MAHMOODI M, MOHAMADFAM I, MIRMOEINI RS. The Application of Non-Parametric Count Models for the Modeling of Female’s Accident Rates in Hamadan Province from 2009 to 2016. Iran J Public Health. 2020;49(4):763-772.
