Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
,
Abstract
Background: Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the situation. The aim of the update of the prediction data was to create a presumption of TB development in Slovakia by 2040.
Methods: We used the time series prediction method with exponential equalization. The basis for the calculation were historical data on the incidence of TB from 1960 to 2018 in Slovakia (data for the last 58 yr). This time series has a clearly declining level. In view of this trend, we have set a threshold, whether and when the incidence in the future will fall below 5.0 patients per 100,000 inhabitants.
Results: In case of a favorable development, the limit of our incidence drop below 5.0 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2022, when the incidence will be 4.91 per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2040, the predicted incidence of TB should be 1.78 per 100 000 inhabitants. A gradual decline may also be related to a decrease in the population of the Slovak Republic.
Conclusion: Slovakia belongs to those countries of the world where TB is under control. Increased surveillance of high-risk communities through community interventions and countries' readiness for global migration can help to influence factors that may aggravate the epidemiological situation of TB.
2. Isaakidis P, Smith S, Majumdar S, Furin J, Reid T (2014). Calling tuberculosis a social disease an excuse for complacency? Lancet, 384 (9948): 1095.
3. Craig GM, Daftary A, Engel N, O'Driscoll S, Ioannaki A (2017). Tuberculosis stigma as a social determinant of health: mapping review of research in low incidence countries. Int J Infect Dis., 56 (C): 90-100.
4. Courtwright A, Turner AN (2010). Tuberculosis and Stigmatization: Pathways and Interventions. Public Health Rep., 125 (4): 34-42.
5. Figueroa-Munoz J, Ramon-Pardo P (2008). Tuberculosis control in vulnerable groups. Bull World Health Organ, 86 (9): 657-736.
6. Kober L, Solovič I, Littva V, Siska V (2018). Social determinants and interventions in tuberculosis. Journal Studia Pneumologica et Phthiseologica, 78 (3):91-95.
7. Bartošovič I, Zacharová E, Zrubáková K, Gážiková E, West DJ, Costello MM. (2017). Demographic Characteristics of Population Ageing in Slovakia. Clinical Social Work and Health Intervention, 8 (3): 7-14.
8. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2019). Tuberculosis surveillance and monitoring in Europe. Solna: ECDC. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/tuberculosis-surveillance-and-monitoring-europe-2019
9. Solovič I, Rozborilová E, Littva V, Švecová J (2010). Tuberkulóza pre prax sestry. 1sted. Ružomberok – Verbum, Slovakia, pp.: 218.
10. Národný register TBC (2019). Vyšné Hágy: NÚTPCHaHCH. Available from: https://www.hagy.sk/narodny-register-tbc/analyza-situacie-tbc-na-slovensku/
11. Donald P (2002). Childhood tuberculosis: out of control. Curr Opin Pulm Med., 8 (3): 178-182.
12. Marušáková E, Bielik J, Frecerová K, Nevická E, Sedláková D (2012). Cancel-ling obligatory mass vaccination of new-borns against TB in Slovakia: predicted development. University Review, 6 (1): 2-11.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 50 No 11 (2021) | |
| Section | Original Article(s) | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v50i11.7577 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Tuberculosis Incidence Epidemiological situation Time series prediction | ||
| Rights and permissions | |
|
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
