Original Article

Projection of Health Sector Workforce Requirement: Vision 2025

Abstract

Background: This study was conducted with a long-term vision (2014-2025) targeted workforce requirement projection by occupational groups in Iran’s health sector.

Methods: The “modified & combined model” used including Hall Model and Australian health workforce estimation model. It was a need-based approach with three components of estimation; requirements, supply with current growth and net required workforce. Requirement estimated by three assumptions: active workforce calculation; the growth of health service delivery resources and facilities; and daily individual working hours, created eight different scenarios. Economic feasibility of each scenario determined. To forecast the supply, used accurate numbers of the existing pool of practicing workforce in addition to inflows, minus losses from the profession. To calculate total recruits required, base year stock deducted from projected requirement and by adding Net flow, recruits required calculated.

Results: The health sector will need 781,887 workforces to realize service's needs. Workforce supply with the existing trend in the target year was 799,347. Therefore, workforce balance would be 17,460 surpluses. Moreover, to estimate required workforce and substitution number for the exited ones during the study periods till the target year, 547,136 individuals should be recruited mostly nurses and physicians.

Conclusion: Limiting the workforce required to economic feasibility challenge workforce accessibility in the future as it is sensed in present tense as well. Therefore, in addition augmenting GDP and health funds, it is necessary alternative policies such as increasing share of health sector from GDP, prioritization of workforce needs or moving towards other proper policies.

1. de Andrade L. O. M, Pellegrini Filho A, Solar O, et al (2015). Social determinants of health, universal health coverage, and sustainable development: case studies from Latin American countries. Lancet, 385(9975):1343-1351.
2. Gore D, Kothari A (2012). Social determinants of health in Canada: Are healthy living initiatives there yet? A policy analysis. Int J Equity Health, 11:41.
3. Framework A, & Dilonardo J (2011). Workforce Issues Related to: Physical and Behavioral Healthcare Integration. Available from: https://www.thenationalcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ONDCP_Framework_Paper.pdf
4. Diallo K (2004). Data on the migration of health-care workers: sources, uses, and challenges. Bull World Health Organ, 82(8):601-7.
5. Cometto G, Tulenko K, Muula A. S, Krech R (2013). Health workforce brain drain: from denouncing the challenge to solving the problem. PLoS Med, 10(9): e1001514.
6. Ehsani Chimeh E, Akhavan Behbahani A (2017). Factors affecting the service delivery locations of newly graduated Iranian general practitioners. Iran Red Crescent Med J, 19(2):e40032.
7. Jahani S, Abedi H, Elahi N, Fallahi-Khoshknab M (2016). Iranian entrepreneur nurses’ perceived barriers to entrepreneurship: A qualitative study. Iran J Nurs Midwifery Res, 21(1):45-53.
8. Qidwai W, Ashfaq T, Khoja T A, Rawaf S (2012). Access to Person-Centered Care: A Perspective on Status, Barriers, Opportunities and Challenges from the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Middle East Journal of Family Medicine, 10(6):4-13.
9. Simforoosh N, Ziaee S. A. M (2014). Growth Trends in Physician Specialists Supply in Iran; 1979-2013. Arch Iran Med, 17(11):771-775.
10. Fereshteh A, Tabibi S. J, Maleki M. R, Nasiripour A. A, Eshlagi A. T (2015). A prediction of the geriatric specialists for the elderly in Iran: a dynamic system. WALIA Journal, 31(S2):132-8.
11. George G, Quinlan T, Reardon C (2009). Human resources for health: A needs and gaps analysis of HRH in South Africa. Health Economics and HIV&AIDS Research Division (HEARD). University of Kwa-Zulu Natal: Durban, South Africa.
12. World Health Organization (2010). Models and tools for health workforce planning and projections. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44263/9789244599013_rus.pdf
13. World Health Organization (1992). Methodology for planning of human resources for health: report of a consultation, Bangkok, Thailand, 23-27 March 1992 (No. HRH/92.9. Unpublished). Available from: https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/59873
14. Tjoa A, Kapihya M, Libetwa M, et al (2010). Meeting human resources for health staffing goals by 2018: a quantitative analysis of policy options in Zambia. Hum Resour Health, 8:15.
15. Hall T (2001). Human Resources for Health: Models for projecting workforce supply and requirements. World Health Organization, San Francisco.
16. Health Workforce Australia (2012). Health Workforce 2025: Medical specialties. Canberra: HWA; https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2012-01/apo-nid154456.pdf
17. Statistical Centre of Iran (2017). Indicators of population in Iran 2015. https://www.amar.org.ir/english
18. Bayat M, Harirchi I, Zalani GS, et al (2017). Estimation of Oncologists’ Active Supply in Iran: Three Sources Capture-Recapture Method. Iran Red Crescent Med J, 19(7): e56126.
19. Ronaghy H. A, Shajari A (2013). The Islamic Revolution of Iran and migration of physicians to the United States. Arch Iran Med, 16(10):590-3.
20. Lankarani K. B (2015). A closer look at Iranian migration to the United States. Arch Iran Med, 18(3): 205.
21. World Bank (2011). Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011. Washington DC. Available from: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAC/Resources/Factbook2011- Ebook.pdf
22. Alaeddini F, Fatemi R, Ranjbaran H, et al (2005). The inclination to immigration and the related factors among Iranian physicians. Hakim Research Journal, 8(3):9-15.
23. Birch S, Kephart G, Tomblin-Murphy G, et al (2007). Human resources planning and the production of health: a needs-based analytical framework. Canadian Public Policy, 33(S1):1-16.
24. Nigenda G, Muños JA (2015). Projections of specialist physicians in Mexico: a key element in planning human resources for health. Hum Resour Health, 13:79.
25. Roberfroid D, Stordeur S, Camberlin C, et al (2008). Physician workforce supply in Belgium: current situation and challenges. http://dspace.itg.be/bitstream/handle/10390/2588/2008phys0150.pdf?sequence=1
26. Turkish Ministry of Health (2011). Turkish health sector human resources for health vision 2023. Ankara: Turkish Ministry of Health. https://www.sesric.org/imgs/news/Image/729-doc-5.pdf
27. Altunisik MB (2011). Turkish Foreign Policy and its Regional Implications. ECSSR (Abu Dhabi) Emirates Lecture Series. (87):0-1.
28. Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education (2013). Health Sector Evolution Plan 2014. https://www.mui.ac.ir/sites/default/files/up_file/link/pdf/100.89p1.pdf
29. O’Sullivan BG, McGrail MR, Stoelwinder JU (2017). Reasons why specialist doctors undertake rural outreach services: an Australian cross-sectional study. Hum Resour Health, 15(1):3.
30. Staiger DO, Auerbach DI, Buerhaus PI (2009). Comparison of physician workforce estimates and supply projections. JAMA, 302(15):1674-80.
31. National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (2014). Projecting the Supply of Non-Primary Care Specialty and Subspecialty Clinicians: 2010–2025. https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bureau-health-workforce/data-research/clinicalspecialties.pdf
32. Canadian Medical Association (2011). Number of physicians by province/territory and specialty, Canada. Retrieved July. 2011;3:2012. https://www.cma.ca/sites/default/files/2019-11/2019-01-spec-prov_1.pdf
33. Ozcelik H, Fadiloglu C, Karabulut B, Uyar M (2010). Palliative care activity in the field of oncology in Turkey. J Palliat Care, 26(4):305-10.
34. Canadian Institute for Health Information (2005). Supply, Distribution and Migration of Canadian Physicians, 1986-2004. In: Scott's Medical Database CIfHI, Editor. 2005-2015.
35. Marcussen J (2015). Health Statistics for the Nordic Countries. p. 40-209. http://nowbase.org/publications/health-statistics-nordic-countries
36. World Health Organization (2015). Geographic distribution Data by country. http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.92500
Files
IssueVol 50 No 7 (2021) QRcode
SectionOriginal Article(s)
Published2021-07-01
DOI https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v50i7.6637
Keywords
Human resources for health Projection Requirement Supply Iran

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
1.
Zalani GS, Shokri A, Mirbahaeddin E, Kashkalani T, Khalilnezhad R, Bayat M. Projection of Health Sector Workforce Requirement: Vision 2025. Iran J Public Health. 50(7):1463-1473.