Assessing the Impact of Aging on Burden of Disease
Background: In this study, we presented a theoretical model to measure aging rate in OECD countries, quantitatively measuring the effect of aging rate on disease patterns in each country and explaining how these effects were obtained. The purpose of this study was to investigate how disease burden varies according to the level of medical infrastructure and changes in aging index using OECD aging data and WHO disease burden data.
Methods: This study used OECD Health data and global burden of disease data from the WHO in 2000 and 2012. We applied a difference-in-differences (DID) model was used to analyze effects of aging.
Results: Disease burdens increased over time, especially in the aging population of middle-aged. In the case of loss of life due to premature death, the number of middle- aged and older population was increased significantly. When we examined the econometric model after controlling related factors, there was a significant increase in loss of life due to illness and premature death. On the other hand, the group of piles at the aging level had a significant positive effect on Years of Life Lost (YLL). Although the interaction effect as an important variable showing double difference effect of aging did not affect Disability adjusted Life Year (DALY), it showed a significant positive effect on YLL.
Conclusion: Loss of life due to death of the elderly was relatively higher than that of the elderly. Therefore, the impact of population aging on medical resources and medical expenditures in the future should consider population structure changes, disease burden by age group, and interactions of these two incremental factors.
Lee MJ, Sohn HS (2012). Self-rated health of the chronic disease patients with depres-sion in aged over 65. J Agric Med Community Health, 37(4): 246-257.
Allison J, Justine C, Nafiz C, Kosta V, Bronwyn W (2013). Australia's population is said to be ageing. Is this a problem, and if so, why? The University of West-ern Australia. https://sites.google.com/site/ihst1110project10
Department of Statistics (2012). “Total pop-ulation survey”. Available from: http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId.
World Health Organization (2014). World Health Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
Kim DB, Yoo BS, Min JS (2011). Analysis of Factors Affecting Health Inequalities among Korean Elderly. Korean Journal of Social Welfare Study, 42(3): 267-290.
Kang HS (2002). Relationships of Health Practice and Health Status in Urban El-derly. Public health and Social Science, 11: 115-136.
Shin SC, Kim MJ (2007). The Effect of Oc-cupation and Employment Status upon Perceived Health in South Korea. Public Health and Social Science, 22: 205-224.
Kim HR (2005). The Relationship of Socio-economic Position and Health Behaviors with Morbidity in Seoul, Korea. Health Soc Welfare Rev, 25(2): 3-35.
Lee YK, Jung HS, Jang WG (2006). The Re-lationship between working Time and Job Stress. Korean J Occup Health Nurs, 15(2): 115-125.
Newhouse JP (1977). Medical-care expendi-ture: A cross-national survey. J Hum Re-sour, 12(1): 115-125.
de la Maisonneuve C, Martins JO (2013). A projection method for public health and long-term care expenditures. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.1048, OECD Publishing, Paris. Avail-able from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k44v53w5w47-en (2017.12.20.)
Shin HC, Choi MY, Choi BH (2012). The cost of end-of-life care in South Korea. Korean J Health Policy Adm, 22(1): 29-48.
Getzen TE (1992). Population aging and growth of health care expenditures, J Ger-ontol, 47(3): S98-104.
OECD Staff, OECD iLibrary. 2013. OECD Employment Outlook 2013, Available from: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/oecd-employment-outlook-2013_empl_outlook-2013-en
World Health Organization (2003). The World Health Report 2003, Geneva, Swit-zerland: World Health Organization.
Breyer F, Joan C, Stefan F (2010). Ageing, health, and health care, Oxf Rev Econ Policy, 26(4): 674-690.
Du Y, Meiyan W (2011). Population ageing, domestic consumption and future eco-nomic growth in China, In: Golley, Jane and Ligang Song, Rising China: Global chanllenges and opportunities, Australian National University
Bjørner TB, Arnberg S (2012). Terminal costs, improved life expectancy and fu-ture public health expenditure. Int J Health Care Finance Econ, 12(2): 129-143.
Kim E, Geoffrey JDH, Cho HD, Lee CG (2011). Analysis of regional economic Impacts of Population Aging: An Appli-cation of Interregional CGE Model for Korea. J KRSA, 27(1): 19-36
Zweifel P, Felder S, Werblow A (2004). Pop-ulation ageing and health care expendi-ture: New evidence on the 'Red Her-ring'”. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insur-ance –Issues and Practice, 29(4): 652-666.
Hazra NC, Rudisill C, Gulliford MC (2017). Determinants of health care costs in the senior elderly: age, comorbidity, impair-ment, or proximity to death? Eur J Health Econ, 2017 Aug30. doi: 10.1007/s10198-017-0926-2.
|Issue||Vol 47 No Supple 1 (2018)|
|Aging Disease burden Difference in difference|
|Rights and permissions|
|This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.|