Tehran University of Medical Sciences Iranian Journal of Public Health 2251-6085 55 3 2026 10 04 41350 41350 Zou xiao Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Zhang xiang Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025 11 02 2026 01 01 Objective: This study aimed to analyze the burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) in Iran. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, we estimated the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ADOD in Iran. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and describe trends over time. Furthermore, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for ADOD in Iran from 2024 to 2050. Results: In 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of ADOD in Iran was 117 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 101.2–132.9; Table 1). The ASIR was 104 per 100,000 (95% UI: 88.3–119) for males and 129.1 per 100,000 (95% UI: 112–146.5) for females. From 1990 to 2023, the AAPC for ASIR was -0.1123 (95% CI: -0.1208 to -0.1038), indicating a slight declining trend in the incidence of ADOD in Iran. The number of incident cases in 2023 was 77,337.7 (95% UI: 66,610.3–87,407.1; Table S1). The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in 2023 was 673.7 per 100,000 (95% UI: 570.2–775.7), with rates of 591.8 per 100,000 (95% UI: 496.7–685.8) for males and 748.1 per 100,000 (95% UI: 636–859.3) for females. The AAPC for ASPR from 1990 to 2023 was -0.1206 (95% CI: -0.1269 to -0.1144), reflecting an overall decreasing trend in ADOD prevalence. The number of prevalent cases in 2023 was 438,730.3 (95% UI: 372,153.3–504,153.8; Table S1). The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed an average annual increase of 0.7%, while the total DALYs remained relatively stable, with a 0.5% increase observed in males. Projections from the ARIMA model suggest that from 2024 to 2050, both the ASIR and ASPR of ADOD in Iran will continue their declining trajectories. By 2050, the ASIR is projected to be 111.8 per 100,000 (95% UI: 98.1–125.6), and the ASPR is projected to be 651.0 per 100,000 (95% UI: 591.8–710.2). https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/41350