Prevalence of Non-Engineered Buildings and Population at Risk for a Probable Earthquake: A Cross-Sectional Study from an In-formal Settlement in Tehran, Iran
Background: Constructions in informal settlements not respected any applying rules, regulations of urban planning, and building codes with high population density, are the municipality challenge. We aimed to identify level of buildings seismic vulnerability and population at risk in Tehran’s Farahzad informal settlement in 2017.
Methods: In this observational cross-sectional study, residential buildings were assessed for seismic performance of constructions. We screened 160 buildings according to Iranian national guidelines by Rapid Seismic Visual Screening Method as a tool to calculate and determine Level of Retrofitting (LR) scores of buildings. We also interviewed residents of the buildings to collect data regarding socio-demographic data, individual disability status, Disaster Assessment of Readiness and Training (DART) regarding household disaster preparedness, and time occupancy in the buildings.
Results: Overall, 160 buildings with 209 households and 957 individuals were surveyed. 97.5% of buildings were formed of heavy construction materials. None of them were categorized as engineered buildings and LR of residential buildings ranged from 82.4% to 163.8% with a mean 117.9%. LR scores of more than 100% were capped as 100%. Vulnerable groups of the sample population include under-five years old (8.7%), 60 yr old and above (6.7%), and 9.1% of households had at least one disabled member. 16.7% of households were living in homes with dense area. The DART score for 94.3% of surveyed households was zero.
Conclusion: Disaster managers in Tehran municipality must design and implement a comprehensive risk reduction plan in poor urban areas as vulnerable regions for earthquake hazard.
2. Holden E, Linnerud K, Banister D (2016). The imperatives of sustainable development. Sustainable Development, 25(3):213-26.
3. Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (2011). Human casualties in earthquakes: progress in modelling and mitigation. Springer Science & Business Media.
4. Ardalan A, Rajaei MH, Masoumi G, et al (2012). 2012-2025 Roadmap of I.R.Iran’s Disaster Health Management. PLoS Curr, 4.e4f93005fbcb34.
5. Doocy S, Cherewick M, Kirsch T (2013). Mortality following the Haitian earthquake of 2010: a stratified cluster survey. Popul Health Metr, 11:5.
6. Omidvar B, Gatmiri B, Derakhshan S (2012). Experimental vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran. Natural Hazards, 60(2):345-65.
7. Tavakoli B, Ghafory-Ashtiany M (1999). Seismic hazard assessment of Iran. Annals of Geophysics, 42(6):1013-21.
8. Omidvar B, Tavakoli S, Eskandari M (2011). Seismic Risk Analysis of Metropolitan Tehran: A Link Between Hazard Analysis, Vulnerability Assessment and Loss Estimation Studies. Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 13(2):117-37.
9. Arian M, Bagha N (2012). Active tectonics of Tehran area, Iran. Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(4):3805-19.
10. Vearey J (2011). Challenging urban health: towards an improved local government response to migration, informal settlements, and HIV in Johannesburg, South Africa. Glob Health Action, 4(1): 5898.
11. UN Habitat III (2015). Issue papers 22 – informal settlements. United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development. New York.
12. Ardalan A, Holakouie Naieni K, Noji E, et al (2006). Risk Factors of Death and Injuries Direct-Related to Bam Earthquake, 26th Dec 2003. Iran J Epidemiol, 2(3):25-33.
13. Durusu M, Kandiş H, Arziman I, et al (2012). Experience gained by a building collapse. TAF Preventive Medicine Bulletin, 11(2):239-42.
14. Wyss M, Trendafiloski G (2011). Trends in the casualty ratio of injured to fatalities in earthquakes. In: Human Casualties in Earthquakes: Progress in Modelling and Mitigation. Springer Science & Business Media, pp. 267-74.
15. Crowley K, Elliott J (2012). Earthquake disasters and resilience in the global North: lessons from New Zealand and Japan. The Geographical Journal, 178(3):208-15.
16. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2015). The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Switzerland.
17. Aitsi-Selmi A, Egawa S, Sasaki H, Wannous C, Murray V (2015). The Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction: Renewing the global commitment to people’s resilience, health, and well-being. Int J Disaster Risk Sci, 6(2):164-76.
18. Bilham R, Gaur V (2013). Geophysics. Buildings as weapons of mass destruction. Science, 341(6146):618-9.
19. Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I, Wisner B (2004). At risk: natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters. Routledge.
20. Bilham R (2010). Lessons from the Haiti earthquake. Nature, 463(7283):878-9.
21. Coburn AW, Spence RJS, Pomonis A (1992). Factors determining human casualty levels in earthquakes: mortality prediction in building collapse. Proceedings of the Tenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Madrid, Spain, 5989-94.
22. Shapira S, Aharonson-Daniel L, Shohet IM, Peek-Asa C, Bar-Dayan Y (2015). Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes. Nat Hazards, 78(2):1447-62.
23. Ramirez M, Peek-Asa C (2005). Epidemiology of traumatic injuries from earthquakes. Epidemiol Rev, 27(1):47-55.
24. Azizi MM, Akbari R (2008). Urban planning issues in earthquake vulnerability: the case of Farahzad region, Tehran. Honar-Ha-Ye-Ziba, 34:25-36.
25. Castillo A, López-Almansa F, Pujades LG (2011). Seismic risk analysis of urban non-engineered buildings: Application to an informal settlement in Mérida, Venezuela. Nat Hazards, 59(2):891-916.
26. Srikanth T, Kumar RP, Singh AP, Rastogi BK, Kumar S (2010). Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Existing Buildings in Gandhidham and Adipur Cities, Kachchh, Gujarat (India). European Journal of Scientific Research, 41(3):336-53.
27. Federal Emergency Management Agency (2017). Rapid Visual Screening of Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards: A Handbook. 2nd ed. Washington, DC,: Government Printing Office.
28. Green RA (2008). Unauthorised Development and Seismic Hazard Vulnerability: a study of squatters and engineers in Istanbul, Turkey. Disasters, 32(3):358-76.
29. Yadollahi M, Adnan AB, Zin RM (2012). Seismic vulnerability functional method for rapid visual screening of existing buildings. Archives of Civil Engineering, 58(3):363-77.
30. Olshansky RB, Wu Y (2004). Evaluating earthquake safety in mid-American communities. Natural Hazards Review, 5(2):71-81.
31. Shah MF, Ahmed A, Kegyes-B OK (2016). A Case Study Using Rapid Visual Screening Method to Determine the Vulnerability of Buildings in two Districts of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. 15th international symposium on new technologies for urban safety of mega cities in Asia, Philippines.
32. Behnamfar F, Shahgholian R (2015). A Comparative Study and Proposal for Enhancement of Rapid Seismic Evaluation of Masonry Buildings. Sharif: Civil Enineering, 31¬2 (3.1): 93-103.
33. Zahraei SM, Ershad L (2005). Study on seismic vulnerability of building structures in Qazvin. Journal of Faculty of Engineering, 39(3):287-97.
34. Jaiswal K, Wald D (2008). Creating a global building inventory for earthquake loss assessment and risk management: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1160.
35. Jaiswal K, Wald D (2010). An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation. Earthquake Spectra, 26(4):1017-37.
36. Doocy S, Daniels A, Aspilcueta D, Inppares-JHSPH-CUNY study team (2009). Mortality and injury following the 2007 Ica earthquake in Peru. Am J Disaster Med, 4(1):15-22.
37. Peek-Asa C, Ramirez M, Seligson H, Shoaf K (2003). Seismic, structural, and individual factors associated with earthquake related injury. Inj Prev, 9(1):62-6.
38. Doocy S, Daniels A, Packer C, Dick A, Kirsch TD (2013). The human impact of earthquakes: a historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review. PLOS Currents Disasters, 5.
39. Blanchard K, Aitsi-Selmi A, Murray V (2015). The Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction: from science and technology to societal resilience. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 6(2).
40. Ellidokuz H, Ucku R, Aydin UY, Ellidokuz E (2005). Risk factors for death and injuries in earthquake: cross-sectional study from Afyon, Turkey. Croat Med J, 46(4):613-8.
41. Liao YH, Hwang LC, Chang CC, et al (2003). Building collapse and human deaths resulting from the Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, September 1999. Arch Environ Health, 58(9):572-8.
42. Dickson E, Baker J, Hoornweg D, Tiwari A (2012). Urban Risk Assessments: Understanding Disaster and Climate Risk in Cities. Urban Development Series. Washington DC: World Bank.