Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries

  • Asim ANWAR Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan
  • Sajid ANWAR School of Business, University of Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Australia
  • Muhammad AYUB Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan
  • Faisal NAWAZ Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan
  • Shabir HYDER Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan
  • Noman KHAN Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan
  • Imran MALIK Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan
Keywords: Climate change; Human infectious diseases; Temperature; Population density

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Climate change is an alarming challenge for humanity at large due to its mediating role in emergence and spread of infectious diseases like cholera and malaria. This study was conducted to examine the effect of climate change and some socio-economic factors on incidence of infectious diseases.

Methods: We used country level panel data over the 1990-2017 period using panel ARDL-PMG technique on highly affected countries from climate change.

Results: There is a long run co-integrating relationship among climate change, socio-economic factors and prevalence of infectious diseases. Climate change, as measured by the temperature, is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases.

Conclusion: This is the first study giving evidence of the impact of climate change on incidence of infectious diseases as can be seen from highly vulnerable countries to climate change. It is recommended to improve the level of education along with public health and town planning to reduce the incidence of infectious diseases.

 

 

References

1. Mardani A, Streimikiene D, Cavallaro F et al (2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth: A systematic review of two decades of research from 1995 to 2017. Sci Total Environ, 649: 31-49.
2. European Environment Agency (2008). Impact of Europe's Changing Climate—2008 Indicator-based Assessment. Joint EEA-JRC-WHO report European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
3. IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014 synthesis report summary for policy makers. Geneva: Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
4. Lowe R, Gasparrini A, Van Meerbeeck CJ, et al (2018). Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study. PLoS Med, 15(7): e1002613.
5. Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA (2008). Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature, 451: 990–3.
6. Turner JW, Malayil L, Guadagnoli et al (2014). Detection of V ibrioparahaemolyticus, V ibriovulnificus and V ibriocholerae with respect to seasonal fluctuations in temperature and plankton abundance. Environ Microbiol, 16(4): 1019-28.
7. Koelle K (2009). The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera. Clin Microbiol Infect, 15 Suppl 1:29-31.
8. McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S (2006). Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet, 367: 859–69.
9. Sonne C, Letcher RJ, Jenssen BM, et al (2017). A veterinary perspective on One Health in the Arctic. Acta Vet Scand, 59(1): 84.
10. Epstein PR (2001). Climate change and emerging infectious diseases. Microbes Infect, 3(9): 747-54.
11. Wu X, Lu Y, Zhou S, Chen L, Xu B (2016). Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation. Environ Int, 86: 14-23.
12. Guerra CA, Gikandi PW, Tatem AJ, et al (2008). The limits and intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: implications for malaria control and elimination worldwide. PLoS Med, 5(2): e38.
13. Tian H, Zhou S, Dong L, et al (2015). Avian influenza H5N1 viral and bird migration networks in Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 112(1): 172-7.
14. Mellor PS, Leake CJ (2000). Climatic and geographic influences on arboviral infections and vectors. Rev Sci Tech, 19(1): 41-54.
15. Gerba CP (1999). Virus survival and transplant in groundwater, (Volume 24). J Ind Microbiol Biotechnol, 22(4): 535-9.
16. Kuhn K, Campbell-Lendrum D, Haines A (2005). Using Climate to Predict Infectious Disease Epidemics. World Health Organization, Geneva, Swithzerland.
17. Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, et al (2002). Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science, 296(5576): 2158-62.
18. Bunyavanich S, Landrigan CP, McMichael AJ, Epstein PR (2003). The impact of climate change on child health. Ambulatory Pediatrics, 3(1): 44-52.
19. McMichael AJ, Haines A, Slooff R (1996). Climate change and human health: an assessment prepared by a task group on behalf of the World Health Organization, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. In Climate change and human health: an assessment prepared by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. OMS.
20. Luque Fernández MA, Bauernfeind A, Jiménez JD, et al (2009). Influence of temperature and rainfall on the evolution of cholera epidemics in Lusaka, Zambia, 2003–2006: analysis of a time series. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 103(2): 137-43.
21. Islam MS, Drasar BS, Bradley DJ (1990). Long-term persistence of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae 01 in the mucilaginous sheath of a blue-green alga, Anabaena variabilis. J Trop Med Hyg, 93(2):133-9.
22. Colwell RR, Huq A (1994). Environmental Reservoir of Vibrio cholerae The Causative Agent of Cholera a. Ann N Y Acad Sci, 740: 44-54.
23. Organization WH (2005). Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics. World Health Organization, Geneva, Swithzerland.
24. Leckebusch GC, Abdussalam AF (2015). Climate and socioeconomic influences on interannual variability of cholera in Nigeria. Health Place, 34: 107-17.
25. Yang Q, Fu C, Dong Z, et al (2014). The effects of weather conditions on measles incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China. Hum Vaccin Immunother, 10(4): 1104-10.
26. Kamruzzaman A, Jahan MS, Rahman MR, Khatun MM (2015). Impact of climate change on the outbreak of infectious diseases among children in Bangladesh. Am J Public Health Res, 3: 1-7.
27. Noskov AK, Vishnyakov VA, Chesnokova MV et al (2015). Population migration as a risk factor for the transboundary importation of dangerous infectious diseases in the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts. Epidemiology and Vaccine Prevention, 14(6): 85.
28. Grossman M (1972). On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. J Polit Economy, 80(2): 223-55.
29. Graff Zivin J, Neidell M (2013). Environment, health, and human capital. J Econ Lit, 51(3): 689-730.
30. Mensah AF, Marbuah G, Mubanga M (2017). Climate variability and infectious diseases nexus: Evidence from Sweden. Infect Dis Model, 2(2): 203-17.
31. Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RP (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. J Am Stat Assoc, 94(446): 621-34.
32. Pesaran MH, Smith R (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. J Econom, 68(1): 79-113.
33. Kao C (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. J Econom, 90(1): 1-44.
34. Mert M, Boluk G (2016). Do foreign direct investment and renewable energy consumption affect the CO 2 emissions? New evidence from a panel ARDL approach to Kyoto Annex countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 23(21): 21669-81.
35. Blackburne III EF, Frank M (2007). Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. Stata J, 7(2): 197-208.
36. Huq A, Sack RB, Nizam A, et al (2005). Critical factors influencing the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in the environment of Bangladesh. Appl Environ Microbiol, 71(8): 4645-54.
37. Chowdhury FR, Ibrahim QSU, Bari MS, et al (2018). The association between temperature, rainfall and humidity with common climate-sensitive infectious diseases in Bangladesh. PLoS One, 13(6): e0199579.
38. Kolaye GG, Bowong S, Houe R et al (2019). Mathematical assessment of the role of environmental factors on the dynamical transmission of cholera. Commun Nonlinear Sci, 67: 203-22.
39. Dangbe E, Irepran D, Perasso A, Bekolle D (2018). Mathematical modelling and numerical simulations of the influence of hygiene and seasons on the spread of cholera. Math Biosci, 296: 60-70.
40. Escobar LE, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, et al (2015). A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions. Acta Trop, 149: 202-11.
41. Ali M, Emch M, Donnay JP, Yunus M, Sack RB (2002). The spatial epidemiology of cholera in an endemic area of Bangladesh. Soc Sci Med, 55(6): 1015-24.
42. Komen K, Olwoch J, Rautenbach H et al (2015). Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A simple econometric approach. Ecohealth, 12(1): 131-43.
43. Guo C, Yang L, Ou CQ, et al (2015). Malaria incidence from 2005–2013 and its associations with meteorological factors in Guangdong, China. Malar J, 14: 116.
44. Eisenberg C, Seager ST, Hibbs DE (2013). Wolf, elk, and aspen food web relationships: Context and complexity. Forest Ecol Manag, 299: 70-80.
Published
2019-12-02
How to Cite
1.
ANWAR A, ANWAR S, AYUB M, NAWAZ F, HYDER S, KHAN N, MALIK I. Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries. Iran J Public Health. 48(12):2187-2195.
Section
Original Article(s)