A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005-2014

  • Dwi Sarwani Sri REJEKI Dept. of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia
  • Nunung NURHAYATI Dept. of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia
  • Budi AJI Dept. of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia
  • E. Elsa Herdiana MURHANDARWATI Center for Tropical Medicine and Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
  • Hari KUSNANTO Dept. of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Keywords: Malaria, Weather factors, Human migration, Climate change, Time series analysis, Indonesia

Abstract

Background: Climatic and weather factors become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmission like malaria. This study aimed to prove relationships between weather factors with considering human migration and previous case findings and malaria cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005-2014.Methods: This study employed ecological time series analysis by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, human migration, and previous malaria cases, while the dependent variable was positive malaria cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i.e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model.Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous malaria cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with malaria cases.Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous malaria cases factors need to be considered as prominent indicators for the increase of malaria case projection.  

References

Marteens WJ, Niessen LW, Rotmans J et al (1995). Potential impact of global climata change on malaria risk. Environ Health Perspect,103(5):458–64.

Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J et al (2014). Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,111(9):3286–91.

Bouma MJ, Poveda G, Rojas W et al (1997). Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Trop Med Int Health, 2(12):1122–7.

Paaijmans KP, Read AF, Thomas MB (2009). Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,106:13844–9.

Huang F, Zhou S, Zhang S, Wang H, Tang L (2011). Temporal correlation analysis between malaria and meteorological factors in Motuo County , Tibet. Malar J, 10:54.

Patz JA, Olson SH (2006). Malaria risk and temperature : Influences from global climate change and local land use practices. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 103(15): 5635–5636.

Kramer A, Kretzschmar M KK (2010). Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology. Springer New York Dordrecht Heidelberg London, pp:1-443.

Kim Y, Park J, Cheong H (2012). Estimated Effect of Climatic Variables on the Transmission of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in the Republic of Korea. Environ Health Perspect, 120(9):1314–9.

Zhao X, Chen F, Feng Z, Li X, Zhou X (2014). The temporal lagged association between meteorological factors and malaria in 30 counties in south-west China : a multilevel distributed lag non-linear analysis. Malar J, 13:57.

Devi N, Jauhari R (2006). Climatic variables and malaria incidence in Dehradun, Uttaranchal, India. J Vector Borne Dis, 43(1):21-8.

Arab A, Jackson MC, Kongoli C (2014). Modelling the effects of weather and climate on malaria distributions in West Africa. Malar J, 13:126.

Alemu A, Abebe G, Tsegaye W, Golassa L (2011). Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town , South West Ethiopia. Parasit Vectors, 4:30.

Loha E, Lindtjørn B (2010). Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from South Ethiopia. Malar J, 9:166.

Mabaso MLHM, Vounatsou P, Midzi S et al (2006). Spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climate in inter-annual variation of malaria incidence in Zimbabwe. Int J Health Geogr, 5:20.

Haque U, Hashizume M, Glass GE et al (2010). The role of climate variability in the spread of malaria in bangladeshi highlands. PLoS One, 5(12): e14341.

Suwito, Hadi UK, Sigit SH, Sukowati S (2010). Hubungan Iklim, Kepadatan Nyamuk Anopheles dan Kejadian Penyakit Malaria. J Entomol Indon, 7(1):42–53.

Memon MS, Solangi S, Lakho S et al (2014). Morbidity and Mortality of Malaria during Monsoon Flood of 2011: South East Asia Experience. Iran J Public Health, 43(1):28–34.

Krefis AC, Schwarz NG, Krüger A et al (2011). Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 84(2):285–91.

Bi P (2003). Climatic Variables and Transmission of Malaria : A 12-Year Data Analysis in Shuchen County , China. Public Health Rep, 118(1):65–71.

Mansell Prothero R (1961). Population movements and problems of malaria eradication in Africa. Bull World Health Organ, 24(4-5): 405–425.

Cohen JM, Smith DL, Cotter C et al (2012). Malaria resurgence : a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malar J, 11:122.

Martens P, Hall L (2000). Malaria on the Move : Human Population Movement and Malaria Transmission. Emerg Infect Dis, 6(2):103–9.

Le Menach A, Tatem AJ, Cohen JM et al (2011). Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar. Sci Rep, 1:93.

Ruktanonchai NW, Bhavnani D, Sorichetta A et al (2016). Census ‑ derived migration data as a tool for informing malaria elimination policy. Malar J, 15:273.

Wang S-J, Lengeler C, Smith TA et al (2006). Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) III:Epidemiology of urban malaria in the municipality of Yopougon (Abidjan). Malar J, 5:29.

Baragatti M, Fournet F, Henry M-C et al (2009). Social and environmental malaria risk factors in urban areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Malar J, 8:13.

Litbangkes Kementerian Kesehatan Indonesia (2013). Riset Kesehatan Dasar. http://www.depkes.go.id/resources/download/general/Hasil%20Riskesdas%202013.pdf

Ministry of Health Indonesia (2007). Climate Variability and Climate Changes, and their Implication. Indonesia Country Report.

Murhandarwati EEH, Fuad A, Sulistyawati et al (2015). Change of strategy is required for malaria elimination: a case study in Purworejo District, Central Java Province, Indonesia. Malar J, 14:318.

Raharjo M (2011). Malaria Vulnerability Index (MLI) untuk manajemen risiko dampak perubahan iklim global terhadap ledakan malaria di Indonesia. J Vektora, 3(1):53–80.

Epstein PR, Diaz HF, Elias S et al (1998). Biological and Physical Signs of Climate Change : Focus on Mosquito-borne Diseases. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 79(3):409–17.

Boewono DT, Widyastuti U, Heryanto B, Mujiono (2012). Pengendalian vektor terpadu pengaruhnya terhadap indikator entomologi daerah endemis malaria Pulau Sebatik Kabupaten Nunukan. Media Litbang Kesehat, 22(4):152–60.

Mabaso MLH, Craig M, Vounatsou P, Smith T (2005). Towards empirical description of malaria seasonality in southern Africa: The example of Zimbabwe. Trop Med Int Health, 10(9):909–18.

Published
2018-04-23
How to Cite
1.
REJEKI DSS, NURHAYATI N, AJI B, MURHANDARWATI EEH, KUSNANTO H. A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005-2014. IJPH. 47(4):499-0.
Section
Original Article(s)